U.S. sportsbooks see the World Cup more as an investment and customer acquisition tool than a revenue boon for the year.
Some estimates say World Cup betting could surpass $4 billion in handle depending on how far the U.S. makes it in the tournament. Operators have been quick to flag, though, that the real opportunity is not the soccer betting itself but what any new users signing up to bet on the World Cup can be cross-sold into once their account is active.
The tournament kicks off June 11 in Mexico City and runs through July 19 when the Final will be held in New Jersey. The timing gives operators an opportunity to grab new sports betting customers in a time that is typically quiet outside of MLB and WNBA games as the NBA and NHL seasons will wrap up by June 19.
DraftKings bullish on predictions pickups
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins is excited about the opportunity to pick up new customers, and not just on the sports betting side.
“I have very high expectations for World Cup when it comes to customer acquisition and engagement,” Robins said on DraftKings’ Q1 earnings call. “I’m not as sure it will be a huge revenue opportunity. The quantum of games, and I’m guessing the amount wagered on some of these, won’t be quite as high as maybe you’ll see on NFL or certainly NBA and some of these other sports.
“But I think it will be absolutely tremendous for customer acquisition, starting with these prediction states. So about half the U.S., including large states like California, Texas and Florida, we have never had a World Cup, never had any major marketing event in terms of something like this in those states. So we’re going to really go for it. Obviously, if the numbers are not supporting that, we will back off. But I have a feeling it’s going to be very strong.”
Prediction investments are ramping up as the World Cup approaches, Robins added. So far, its predictions product has seen “really, really strong numbers” on customer acquisition costs, he said.
BetRivers parent ‘very excited’ for World Cup
Rush Street Interactive is very active in Latin America and is ready to add customers across multiple countries based off its experience with the Copa America in 2024. The goal is to eventually turn them into online casino customers, CFO Kyle Sauers said.
“We’re very excited about the player acquisition that comes along with it,” Sauers noted on the Q1 earnings call for BetRivers‘ parent company. “So, hopefully, that will turn into a bigger impact than what we’ve modeled and what we’ve guided to. So that could be exciting.
” … The Copa America in 2024, that summer, we saw our monthly active users in Colombia increase by an average of 170% year-over-year in June and July, which is the two months where that event happened. So that was a big driver of the future growth for us in Colombia.
The fact that this World Cup is taking place in U.S. timezones is also key, CEO Richard Schwartz added.
“But also the time zones for all of our players in the Americas will be the same time zones that are awake, which is rare compared to how it’s been about several World Cups, even over in Europe or the Middle East, even,” Schwartz said. “So I think this is a chance for us to really capture a large amount of interest from bettors in these markets because we know it expands the pie of recreational users who we can then cross-sell, as Kyle just said, to casino.”
Fanatics adds key partnership
Fanatics is giving its prediction markets product an extra edge for the tournament.
Fanatics Markets will have an interactive branded experience through a partnership with ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market partner of the 2026 World Cup. The content will include expanded markets, tournament news and official player data.
“When ADI Predictstreet was looking for a U.S. partner, it was a natural conversation given the scale of our reach to fans,” said Matt King, CEO of Fanatics Betting & Gaming. “We are excited to bring that experience to Americans this summer. The World Cup Hub gives fans a more immersive way to follow the tournament in real time, combining content, data and prediction markets all in one experience.”
World Cup handle estimates
Estimates for U.S. World Cup handle seem to be ranging from around $2.5 billion for the worst-case scenarios to more than $4 billion in the best-case scenarios.
Eilers & Krejcik expects $2.82 billion in handle as its base case. That would be about three times the estimated 2022 World Cup handle, E&K notes, and is supported by the addition of 40 games and a larger footprint of legal sports betting states.
Handle could top $4 billion if the U.S. team makes a deep run in the tournament. The base case expects the U.S. to lose in either the Round of 32 or Round of 16.
Steven Pizzella of Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, expects $3.3 billion for his base case, but notes that even the $2.5 billion bear case is likely “modestly ahead” of investor expectations. That could lead to a stock boost for digital operators, he added. Nearly $2.4 billion of that handle would come from DraftKings and FanDuel based on market share for the trailing 12 months.
